Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects

今天在網路上看到這篇文章,
「Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects」.
標題就很清楚了,
研究大聯盟新秀的成功率.
它使用的評量方法是用WAR(Wins Above Replacement).
細節的部份有興趣的人再看本文就好了.

我的想法是,
數據內容不是很意外.
令人讚賞的是,
美國的球探系統真的很發達!
有意義的排名,才能得到這樣的結果.

另外附上幾個旅美球員的排名.
(All-Time Top 100 Prospects)

• 陳金鋒 : 17th in 2000.
• 曹錦輝 : 15th in 2001.
• 王建民 : never ranked.
• 郭泓志 : never ranked.

以下僅節錄結論的部份:

• About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.
• Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
• About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.
• About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
• About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)
• About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)
• The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100.
• Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars.  Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.
• Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.